The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) report for April 2025 projects a decline in global growth amid policy shifts and new uncertainties .
Key highlights:
- Global Growth: Global growth is expected to decline after a period of steady, but underwhelming performance . The forecasts have been revised markedly downwards compared to the January 2025 update, reflecting high effective tariff rates and an unpredictable environment .
- Global Inflation: Global headline inflation is expected to decline at a slightly slower pace than previously anticipated .
- Risks: Downside risks dominate the outlook, including escalating trade tensions and financial market adjustments . Divergent policy positions or deteriorating sentiment could tighten global financial conditions . Heightened trade policy uncertainty may hinder short and long-term growth prospects . Scaling back international cooperation could also jeopardize progress toward a more resilient global economy .
- Policy Recommendations: The report emphasizes the need for countries to promote a stable and predictable trade environment and facilitate international cooperation . Addressing policy gaps and structural imbalances domestically is also crucial for securing internal and external economic stability . Policies that promote healthy aging and enhance labor force participation among older individuals and women could stimulate growth and ease fiscal pressures . Productivity growth can be fostered through better integration of migrants and refugees and mitigating skill mismatches .
Chapter Highlights:
- Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies: Discusses the decline in global growth amid policy shifts and uncertainties . Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, with escalating trade tensions and policy-induced uncertainty hindering growth .
- Chapter 2: The Rise of the Silver Economy: Explores the implications of population aging, focusing on healthy aging and its impact on labor markets . Policies supporting healthy aging and increased labor force participation among older individuals are crucial .
- Chapter 3: Journeys and Junctions: Spillovers from Migration and Refugee Policies: Examines how changes in migrant and refugee policies can alter the movement of people between economies . Stricter policies can deflect flows of people to new destinations, which can benefit in the longer term . International cooperation can help distribute short-term costs across economies .
- In summary, the April 2025 World Economic Outlook highlights a critical juncture for the global economy, with declining growth, intensifying risks, and the need for international cooperation and domestic policy adjustments .
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